2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions (and Early Wagers)

Author ImageAuthor: | Last Updated: April 2025
kentucky derby 2025

Journalism has emerged as the clear favorite to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby after he cruised to victory in the Santa Anita Derby. That extended his winning streak to four races, so he is surging with momentum right now. However, he faces fierce competition from the highly-rated Sandman, Florida Derby winner Tappan Street and Japanese raider Luxor Café.

It is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, and we have provided our early Kentucky Derby predictions below. We will break down the Kentucky Derby favorites, highlight a few interesting underdogs, and discuss the best online racebook.

The Road to the Derby

The world’s finest three-year-olds have spent the spring campaign battling for a place in the Kentucky Derby 2025. The field is limited to just 20 runners, so only the very best will earn a starting berth.

The top American runners can qualify by performing well in the Road to the Kentucky Derby, a series of key build-up races. Most of those races have now concluded, so we know which horses are likely to contest the Derby.

It’s also worth noting that Luxor Cafe, who has dominated the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, is likely to head to Churchill Downs for the big race. That could leave space for just 19 American runners.

Magnitude, the winner of the Risen Star Stakes, will miss out due to injury, so these horses currently occupy the top 20 places:

Position Horse Points Earnings Trainer
1 Sandman 129 $1,117,995 Mark E. Casse
2 Journalism 122.5 $600,000 Michael W. McCarthy
3 Rodriguez 121.25 $476,000 Bob Baffert
4 Tiztastic 119 $1,395,800 Steven M. Asmussen
5 Tappan Street 110 $619,400 Brad H. Cox
6 Sovereignty 110 $548,800 William I. Mott
7 Final Gambit 100 $446,400 Brad H. Cox
8 Coal Battle 95 $1,169,500 Lonnie Briley
9 Chunk of Gold 75 $324,400 Ethan West
10 Citizen Bull 71.25 $1,436,000 Bob Baffert
11 Owen Almighty 65 $415,310 Brian A. Lynch
12 Publisher 60 $355,000 Steven M. Asmussen
13 American Promise 45 $335,000 D. Wayne Lukas
14 Flood Zone 50 $174,993 Brad H. Cox
15 Flying Mohawk 50 $156,800 Whit Beckman
16 Grande 50 $140,000 Todd A. Pletcher
17 Getaway Car 46 $578,000 Bob Baffert
18 Madaket Road 46 $290,000 Bob Baffert
19 Built 45 $180,000 Wayne M. Catalano
20 Neoequos 40 $153,250 Saffie Joseph Jr.

These are the results so far in the biggest prep races for the Kentucky Derby:

Championship Series first-leg events:

Race Distance 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Risen Star 1 1/8 miles Magnitude Chunk Of Gold Built Vassimo American Promise
Rebel Stakes 1 1/16 miles Coal Battle Madekat Road Sandman Publisher Tiztastic
Gotham Stakes 1 mile Flood Zone Sand Devil Garamond My Mitole McAfee
Fountain of Youth 1 1/16 miles Sovereignty River Thames Neoequoes Burnham Square Gate to Wire
San Felipe 1 1/16 miles Journalism Barnes Rodriguez Mellencamp Smooth Cruisein
Tampa Bay Derby 1 1/16 miles Owen Almighty Chancer McPatrick Hill Road Patch Adams Brodeur
Virginia Derby 1 1/8 miles American Promise Render Judgment Omaha Omaha Getaway Car Studlydoright

(1st=50 points; 2nd=25 points; 3rd=15 points; 4th=10 points; 5th=5 points).

Championship Series second-leg events:

Race Distance 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Louisiana Derby 1 3/16 miles Tiztastic Chuck Of Gold Instant Replay John Hancock Built
Jeff Ruby 1 1/8 miles Final Gambit Flying Mohawk Maximum Promise Poster Giocoso
Florida Derby 1 1/8 miles Tappan Street Sovereignty Neoequos Madaket Street Disruptor
Arkansas Derby 1 1/8 miles Sandman Publisher Coal Battle Cornucopian Brereton’s Baytown
Blue Grass Stakes 1 1/8 miles Rodriguez Grande Passion Rules Captain Cook McAfee
Santa Anita Derby 1 1/8 miles Journalism Baeza Westwood Citizen Bull Barnes
Wood Memorial 1 1/8 miles          

(1st=100 points; 2nd=50 points; 3rd=25 points; 4th=15 points; 5th=10 points)

Upcoming second-leg events:

Blue Grass Stakes 1 1/8 miles 1 Keeneland April 8
Lexington 1 1/8 miles 3 Keeneland April 12

We will know which horses are in line to contest the Kentucky Derby once those final races have concluded. However, the picture won’t change too dramatically, so the best online racebooks have already released Kentucky Derby futures odds.

Kentucky Derby Favorites

These are the current favorites in the Kentucky Derby futures betting, with odds from BetOnline:

  • Journalism (+375) | Michael McCarthy’s star colt emerged as a leading Kentucky Derby contender after clinching an impressive win in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December. He then lived up to his billing by winning the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park, before blitzing his rivals in the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
  • Sovereignty (+750) | This highly-rated Godolphin colt won the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, followed by the G3 Street Sense at Churchill Downs. He was the clear favorite for the G1 Florida Derby, but he finished second, 1 ¼ lengths behind Tappan Street. However, Sovereignty finished strong in that race, and he could fare better in the Derby if he is more alert when breaking from the post.
  • Sandman (+1000) |Sandman occupies the No. 1 spot in the Road to the Derby 2025 after winning the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. It was his first win this year, but he appears to be on an upward curve, so he is a leading contender for the Derby. However, he has struggled at Churchill Downs, as he was comprehensively beaten in a couple of G3 races there last year.
  • Citizen Bull (+1200) | The 2024 American champion two-year-old won a couple of big Grade 1 races last year, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Citizen Bull followed it up with a strong victory in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, so he carried a great deal of hype into his three-year-old season. However, he could only finish fourth in the Santa Anita Derby after fading in the closing stages of the race, so stamina is a concern.

Kentucky Derby Underdogs

Here are a few interesting underdogs that could spring a surprise in the Derby:

  • Tiztastic is priced at +2000, despite securing a place in the big race courtesy of an eye-catching win over 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. His performance in the Rebel Stakes was underwhelming, but he could be dangerous at Churchill Downs.
  • Publisher is a +2500 outsider with BetOnline after finishing second to Sandman in the Arkansas Derby. He also finished behind Sandman in the Rebel Stakes, which doesn’t bode particularly well. However, he is certainly improving, and his pedigree is impeccable. He was sired by the legendary Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh, and he is also trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, which could be a recipe for success.
  • Final Gambit has been assigned futures odds of +3300 for the Derby after winning the G3 Jeff Ruby by 3 ½ lengths earlier in March. He defied morning line odds of 15-1 to secure that win, courtesy of a last-to-first rally. Final Gambit won’t carry much hype into the race, but he could spring a surprise at the Kentucky Derby.

Our Predictions for Kentucky Derby 2025

These are our top predictions for the Kentucky Derby:

Sandman to Win the Kentucky Derby

Sandman has gone from strength to strength this year. Dual Hall of Fame Trainer Mark Casse was delighted with Sandman’s performance in the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in January. He finished runner-up to Speed King in that race, but he was also ahead of Tiztastic. Sandman broke in a tangle, and he had to rally from last of nine to clinch that runner-up finish.

He then finished third in the G2 Rebel Stakes with an improved time, before winning the G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn earlier this month. Closers have not fared particularly well in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, so Sandman would need to buck that trend. However, his Brisnet Speed numbers of 91-95-101 are promising, and he should have no trouble stepping up to 1 ¼ miles.

Tappan Street to Place

Tappan Street is priced at +1200 with BetOnline to win the Kentucky Derby, despite getting the better of the highly-rated Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. He was handed a tough draw, breaking from post #9, but he caught the eye with a stalking trip. Tappan Street drifted out three wide, but he still had enough left in the tank to reel in his rivals on the home stretch.

That tactical speed bodes well for Tappan Street’s chances of success in the Kentucky Derby. His final furlong clocked in at 12.68 seconds, which is solid. The Florida Derby has yielded a record 25 Kentucky Derby winners, so he has to be taken seriously.

Luxor Cafe to Show

Luxor Cafe, another American Pharaoh colt, has enjoyed a remarkably dominant three-year-old season in Japan. He has won his last four races, culminating in a five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse on March 29.

That earned him a guaranteed place in the Kentucky Derby, but connections have not yet confirmed whether he will head to the US for the big race. If he does travel, he should be one of the leading contenders. He showed an impressive burst of acceleration at Nakayama, but he still needs to prove his ability to handle 1 ¼ miles on dirt.

The Kentucky Derby Will Be Here Before You Know It

We are now just weeks away from the big race. You’ll find Kentucky Derby odds on all the leading contenders at BetOnline, so you can get your fixed-odds bets in early. Pari-mutuel wagering will also be available on the day of the race, including the win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and various other betting options.

Sign up with BetOnline now to claim up to $250 in free bets, with no strings attached. You can also claim a $25 risk-free bet on the Kentucky Derby, plus a daily 9% racebook rebate, so it’s a great option for anyone making Kentucky Derby predictions this year.

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About the Author

Isaac E. Payne is an experienced technical blogger, creative writer, and lead content manager at GamblingNerd.com. As a published author, he enjoys finding interesting and exciting ways to cover any topic. In his four years on the team, he has covered online gambling and sports betting and excelled at reviewing casino sites. In his free time, he enjoys playing blackjack and reading science fiction.